第164期【朗润·格政】论坛
超越通货膨胀的货币政策正常化

Monetary Policy Normalization Beyond Inflation:
Rationale, Challenges, and Options

主讲嘉宾：Robert Holzmann

(资料图片仅供参考)

奥地利央行行长、欧洲央行管理委员会委员
Governor of Austrian Central Bank (OeNB) & Member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB)

2023年7月6日（周四）上午10:00-11:30
10:00am-11:30am, Thursday, July 6, 2023

北京大学国家发展研究院（承泽园校区）420多功能厅
Multi-function Room 420, National School of Development (Chengze Garden Campus), Peking University

语     言：英语
Language: English

主办单位: 北京大学国家发展研究院
Organizers: National School of Development, Peking University

讲座议程

Program

10：00-10：45 Presentation by Robert Holzmann

10：45-11：00 Comment by Kai Guo, Senior Research Fellow, China Finance 40 Forum and former Deputy Director-General, Monetary Policy Department, People’s Bank of China

11：00-11：30 Discussion

主讲嘉宾
Speaker

Robert Holzmann is an Austrian economist and since 2019 he is the Governor of Austria’s central bank, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. Before this appointment he spent half of this his long professional life of 50 years in academia (including Austria, Germany, Malaysia and Australia) and the other half in key international organizations (OECD, IMF, and World Bank).  He has published inter alia 41 books, 98 contributions to books, 51 papers in refereed journals, and many other publications on fiscal, social and monetary issues of which 6 of his books on pension issues have been translated into Chinese. He has visited over 90 countries in the world across all regions.

讲座摘要
Abstract

The presentation explores the policy options and research questions that emerge after the current high inflation has been tamed in Europe, USA, and other parts of the Global North. Can we go back to conventional monetary policy before 2008, when short-term policy interest rates and reserve requirements dominated the monetary toolbox? Or may we have to continue in a world of unconventional monetary policy (UMP), with a toolbox consisting of negative policy interest rates, quantitative easing, subsidized borrowing rates, and forward guidance? The answer will depend on the prospects for the natural rate of interest (r*) that has fallen in recent decades. Without a re-rise in the natural rate, we may be confined to resort to UMP in current or renewed form.  The presentation explores both monetary options under a permanent low r* and non-monetary reform options that promise to increase r*:  Increasing total factor productivity, increasing to labour supply, and increasing capital transfers from the Global North to the Global South.

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